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Prediction for CME (2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-20T09:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18911/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2022-01-20T08:00Z followed by notable dimming best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and some rising loops after the filament erupts (visible in both SDO/AIA 193 and 171). The source location is just NW of AR 12933. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-21T09:53Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T17:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T03:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-20T16:42Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 478
Longitude (deg): 59W
Latitude (deg): 2S
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes: Mostly passing ahead. 
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 49.73 hour(s)
Difference: 14.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-01-22T15:25Z

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